If you ask the average sports bettor, and even those above average, what percentage of bets they need to win in order to profit betting on sports, they will invariably parrot the 52.4% fallacy. That is because most people don’t understand the game they are playing in the first place, so all they can do is repeat those who claim to be experts.
Here is a fact…. If you are betting point spreads and totals at -110, then you do indeed have to win 52.4% of your bets to break even. But if you are betting on +150 dogs you only need to win 40% to break even. And if you are betting -150 favorites you need to win 60% to break even.
So obviously, it is NOT necessary to win over 50% of your bets to be profitable.
Over the years I have always made the most money, both as a Return on Investment and in Net Profit, when my win rate has been between 40 and 45 percent.
The truth is, your winning percentage is directly tied to the lines you play. It has nothing to do with your handicapping skills, and a higher winning percentage actually makes you less likely to win money because it is a result of playing bad lines that place you under a HUGE disadvantage.
Sports betting is about following rules, at least when it is done right. That is the sole reason why you can win. You can control the rules. So here is a rule for you to follow that will help you play on an even footing with the books.
The closer your break even percentage get’s to 50%, the less likely you are to make a profit from betting. At 52.4%, it is almost impossible to make long term profits. For best sports betting results, and the biggest advantage over the books, bet only on lines that require a 45% or less winning percentage to be profitable.
The erroneous belief that you have to win over 50% of your bets to make money is what keeps most people trying to win more bets on bad lines. The books count on you listening to a bunch of “experts” who have no idea how to win money betting on sports, and telling you to bet bad lines because they are more worried about their winning percentage than your bottom line.
Don’t fall for it.
There are many fallacies when it comes to betting on sports. Get DIY Sports Betting and learn to avoid all of the bookie traps. It’s easy to win if you know how.