The sports books make more money on football than any other sport. And more money is bet on football. Yet it has by far the shortest season of any sport. The question that comes to my mind is how can the books make more money off of football with only 16 games (not counting the playoffs) than they do off of baseball with 162 games? And not just a little bit more, but a LOT more.
One of the main reasons the books profit so much is that people who bet on football almost always bet with the point spread. I understand that without the point spread, very few people would bet on football. But that only makes it a good bet for the books. For the bettor it is always a sucker bet.
I read an article I can no longer find to link to that said the NFL nets the books almost 9% profit. The NBA almost 7% profit. Major League Baseball came in at just under 3% profit. The NHL was not in the study because there was not enough money bet I guess. I suspect it would come in right about where baseball is.
But even though the books actually take about about 9% from the winner on point spreads, they also shade those point spreads to cash in on the betting public’s tendencies. There is a good article about that here. In a previous article I showed you how the shading on money line bets is about 3%. They do that on spread bets too, and it doubles their profits when they play you the right way.
The point is, the smart sports bettor is going to make most of their money where the books have the smallest advantage and the smallest net profit. And not coincidentally, those are the sports that offer no point spreads because they are not necessary. Baseball and the NHL, to be more specific.
Baseball is the easiest sport to make money in, followed by the NHL. Then the NBA. Then the NFL. What a coincidence it is that the books net profit percentage in each of the sports is the exact opposite of the players potential to make money in the sport.
Isn’t it fortuitous for the books that the most bet on sport in the world is also the most difficult to profit from for the bettor, and the one that yields them the highest net return percentage? Or is it “rigged” because the books are better able to hide their shading from the less sophisticated bettors in the general public who bet on football only to make their beer taste a little better during the game?
The point is, just because the world seems to love betting on football doesn’t mean that you, as someone who bets on sports for profits, has to sacrifice those profits to make bets on a sport just because everybody else is doing it.
On any given Sunday during football season, there is most likely a baseball, hockey, or NBA game that offers more value than the best NFL game available. It is far better to wager on a good hockey game than a bad football game.
I suspect that many people don’t bet baseball and hockey for the wrong reasons. They may not like baseball, and know nothing about hockey. They mistakenly believe they should stick to the games they know.
When you are focused on the game between yourself and the book, it doesn’t matter one iota how much you know about the sport being played or how much you like it. Year after year, I make the most money in baseball, followed by hockey. I don’t like baseball and don’t even know the rules of hockey.
But I love the game with the book, and know the rules very well. I should, because I make them. I let the books fleece the football bettors, and it lets me profit consistently, year after year, from baseball and hockey, and to a lesser extent the NBA, while betting very sparingly on the NFL. Both of us are happy.
So pick your sports, and pick your spots. But don’t make the mistake of thinking your knowledge of a sport has any influence on whether or not you can make money betting on it. In most cases, the more you know the less success you will have. Just don’t sit out on the most lucrative sports because you can’t stand the game.
The real game is between you and the books. Always remember that and focus your attention on where it is least profitable for the book so it can be the most profitable for you.