Continue reading »]]> Sports Betting Shortcut : Learn From The Best

Just like with anything you want to be good at, you have to learn how to bet on sports. Anybody who starts out winning from the beginning is just lucky. Eventually, the lack of knowledge will overpower the luck and the profits will vanish, along with subsequent bankrolls.

The truth is, sports betting takes some degree of skill to be successful. Anybody can develop the skill needed. The problem is, you must first obtain the right tools and knowledge before you can begin learning the skill to put them to profitable use. Since most people never get the right knowledge, the needed skills become elusive.

So, why are there so many losers out there? It’s because the nature of the game is misunderstood by even those who call themselves experts. Therefore, when you learn from people who do not understand the true nature of the game, you build your skills on a faulty foundation which is almost impossible to overcome. The net result is that you are reliant upon luck.

Have you ever used a new system that just rocked the bookies world for the first month or two, and then it just went away and became a huge revenue leak in your betting business? That happens because your “system” was built by someone who didn’t know better, that was clueless to the nature of the game the system was trying to exploit. First it was lucky, then that luck evened out.

The reason most people lose is because they learn from losers. They learn from “gamblers” that fail to see why sports betting is the only game that can be won. To them, it is just another way to gamble. The books, they think, have the advantage and they will do whatever it takes to beat it. What a bunch of crock.

The book doesn’t have an advantage. The few who win know this. We understand that we give ourselves the advantage by choosing the right games to bet, while the gambler risks his money on low value games that give the books the advantage.

If you want to win money betting on sports, you have to learn from the best. The average professional handicapper will have good streaks and bad streaks. I know from watching the standings at Best Sports Picks Today that most handicappers depend on winning percentage to profit. I sometimes see picks at up to -190. That’s an insane bet to make, yet that’s what many of the experts say to do.

Your bankroll will not take kindly to your getting advice from someone who is willing to bet two units to win one when there is most likely another game in the same sport that will pay him +150 with a better than 50% chance of winning the bet.

If you learn from the best, you will beat the rest. And that includes the bookies themselves. So how do you find the best?

If you were going to learn from someone on the chart below, which reflects the Lifetime results at Best Sports Picks Today as of 5-8-2012, who would it be? I think at the very least the charts shows you should at least consider that I may know what I am talking about.

The numbers above include my 0-18 record for the month of February 2012, my only losing month in seven, and I am still over 12 units above second place. I have been expert of the month twice (January and April 2012), and second three times, (October and November 2011 and March 2012), in the last seven months. I have won expert of the week six times over that stretch, and was the Top Winner of 2011. I am the current leader for 2012, and for the month of May 2012 as of 5-9.

Hopefully, from that you will take away that I am qualified to teach you a little about making money at the books. I realize that stating the facts sounds a lot like bragging in this particular case. I am proud of my record and far exceeded even my own expectations, but that only qualifies me to teach you a little bit. It says little about me, and volumes about my methods.

Those of us who really understand the nature of the game are few and far between. I have heard that 98% of all bettors lose money over a year, so I guess we comprise the 2%. Maybe even less, because it is possible with a lot of time and dedication to win in spite of yourself.

I don’t know any magic tricks, and I don’t have any secrets to share. What I do have is a fundamental knowledge of what needs to be done for a sports bettor to win, and some tools to assist you in applying those fundamentals in a profitable way.

Am I the best sports bettor in the world? Of course not. I am not a professional sports bettor. I don’t have the stomach for risk that it takes to pull it off. I do it for fun more than money. That’s the way it is supposed to be. Minimum risk for maximum fun and profits.

I will let the documented record speak for itself as to my qualifications. If you believe I am worthy to teach you based on those results, I humbly accept.

If you want to learn my systems and strategies click the link below

DIY Sports Betting Systems

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Continue reading »]]> There are many professional sports handicappers that sell picks on the internet. Depending on what time of the year of it is, they may send out 100 picks a month or more. At the end of most months, they are indeed profitable after all of those bets. On the other hand, they sometimes will lose. On a day to day basis, sometimes they win big, other times they lose just as big. Sometimes they hit 100% on a day, others they lose 100%. Most days, they are somewhere in between the extremes.

Overall, the subscriber should be able to recover the cost of the picks, but usually not a lot more than that. Lets take a closer look using the information at one of the very best out there. Sean Higgs at http://www.seanhiggswins.com . For this exercise, lets take the following records shown on his web site described as Hot Streaks.

NFL 74-62-3 (55% for +$885) Last 139 – Premium Picks
NHL 74-72-5 (51% for +$1713) Last 151 – All Picks

Over 151 picks in the NHL, he hit 51% with a profit of +1713.

+1713/151 = 11.34

That little math exercise tells me that someone who played every single pick during that stretch of NHL games, betting 100 per game, made 11.34 per game profit. I don’t know what the actual cost is per pick, but it must be less than $11 for a customer to profit. The difference is what you would pocket per bet.

Over 139 picks in the NFL, he hit 55% with a profit of +885

+885/139 = 6.36

Someone who bet every one of those games at 100 would have made 6.36 per game profit. Did the picks cost less than 6 each?

Combined for both sports, out of 290 bets made +2598, or 8.95 per bet.

I am not trying to pick on Sean by dissecting his numbers. Sean is a strong second place Lifetime at Best Sports Picks Today with a 10 unit lead over third place, so he has game. Here are some others at the top using their records from Best Sports Picks Today, along with Sean’s impressive record there.

Sean Higgs 58 – 48 – +2447 (54.7% win rate) 23.08 return per bet
Mr. Danny Phee 65 – 48 – +1459 (57.5% win rate) 12.91 return per bet
Carolina Capper 36 – 21 – +1340 (63.1% win rate) 23.50 return per bet

Following Sean’s free picks at BSPT (106 picks) returned almost as much as playing his last 290 bets on the NFL and NHL over a very similar time frame. The additional 184 games yielded and extra +150 in profits, or about .81 per game at a 100 bet.

My point is not to put down on these guys, or their pick services. All are professionals and very good at what they do. The question is, is what they do good for you?

I used to think that placing a lot of bets was the way to go. If you find an advantage, you may as well exploit it to the fullest extent possible, right? As it turns out, placing a lot of bets is self defeating.

The only exception wold be betting on point spreads where there is a charted and known advantage. It is wise to bet every game that comes up on the charts in my NFL spread system because there is a known advantage that shows up as profits at the end of every season.

There is much to learn by looking at the numbers above.

First, it shows that the real professionals at BSPT put their best foot forward there. As a result, it is a good place to get quality free picks. There is far more than a 100 bet at stake with the free picks. Each and every month we all risk our reputation.

Secondly, it demonstrates that there is a diminishing return on your betting investment the more games you bet as well as a substantial added risk. Using Sean’s results, you can look at it this way:

In his 106 BSPT games, the total risk was 10,600 for a return of 2447. In his 290 Combined Plays, the total risk was 29,000 for a return of +2598. The additional risk of 2.73 times the amount of money yielded an extra profit of .9%.

That doesn’t say as much about the value of the picks as it does about the necessity of restricted betting. These numbers make it very clear that maximum profits happen with minimal betting on high value lines.

The other explanation is that most of the premium picks are on lines that offer little value. On any given day, the books may offer one or two really good lines. A good line is one that pays out +150 or better on a team with a winning record playing in a favorable situation. If you want to win money betting on sports, your job is to locate those games and restrict your betting to them.

Look at my own record at BSPT through May 6, 2012.

72 – 95 ( 43.1% win rate) – +3515 21.04 return per bet.

Winning 20% fewer bets than Carolina Capper, I am almost equal in return per bet. Winning 11.6% fewer bets than Mr. Higgs, I am almost equal in return per bet. Winning 14.4% fewer bets than Mr. Phee, I have far exceeded his return per bet.

Winning is about betting on high value lines, not high volume betting. Winning percentage also takes a back seat, because if you can win 45% of your high value bets you will make more than the guy who wins 60% against the spread on a lines with a negative value. Probably a LOT more.

I don’t sweat my winning percentage so long as the bankroll grows. I know I am going to lose as many games as I win, probably more. But I also know that I am going to profit if I win only 40% because there is value in the lines I bet.

If you bet more than one game a day, you are probably betting too much. There are just not that many lines that have true value. You may even miss that good line looking for other games to fill up your card for the night.

Most people don’t want to hear that. They would much rather find a reliable way to handicap every single game so they can bet a lot and spread the risk. I say they are increasing the risk by betting more, and on bad lines to boot.

Give this a try. Set your goal to win a specific number of units per week. Set that same figure as the maximum loss per week. Two is reasonable. Possibly three for baseball so you can play a three game betting series.

Make AT MOST one bet per day!!! Bet ONLY the best line value you can find. Once you hit your win or loss target, be done for the week. Many weeks you will not hit the top or the bottom, and a bet can be placed every day.

Often, you hear the word discipline used for sports betting money management. That is what is meant. The more games you bet, the more risk you assume and the less potential there is to profit. The better the value in the line, the less the risk you assume and the more potential there is to profit. Reread those last two sentences until you fully understand them as the key to profiting by betting on the outcome of sporting events.

You must control your betting if you want to win. That starts with the number of games you bet on to begin with, and ends with betting only on the best value lines for any given day.

If you need some help to figure out where the best lines are, that’s what my systems do. Find out more about them, and see the proven results, at the link below:

NBA, NFL, MLB, and NHL sports betting systems

http://www.diysportsbetting.com

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