One of my facebook friends asked me last week why it is that all of the betting systems on the internet don’t work, and why those that might work are kept secret by greedy experts who sell picks.
I believe he was implying his belief that my systems do not work, because others he has tried do not work. I think the lean of the question was really towards sarcasm and calling me out, rather than a desire to learn the answer and improve his chances of winning. A lot of people are like that. Open mouth, closed mind…
Of course, since I have had my “sports betting systems” out in the open for almost 10 years and they still work like a charm, I had to disagree with the premise of the question. But it still needs answering because the answer can help everyone be more successful in the battle with the books.
Once I started to think about it, the question itself made more sense. And me calling my own product a “sports betting system” is not really that accurate. It would be more accurate to say those who get my “systems” learn to play my “strategy”. Picking teams becomes secondary to the strategy of which games to chose from, which is what makes the winning possible.
The difference is, most “sports betting systems” are stat based and exploit one or more statistical occurrences, by one or both teams, that seem to give the player an edge over the books.
My strategy, on the other hand, is to use the books basic business model to our own advantage. In order to profit, the books are locked into a system of money lines and sucker bets. I employ a strategy to use that system against itself and give me a monetary advantage, as opposed to a statistical advantage that a stat based system would produce.
The thing is, a statistical based sports betting system will always be fleeting. Once it is well known, the books will adjust for it and take any advantage away. Then you have to look for a replacement system. Over and over again.
At the same time, playing my strategies will always work because the book would have to change it’s entire business model to compensate. That will never happen.
Although there are a few people who can beat the book at it’s own game, the vast majority are never able to overcome the inherent disadvantage in playing an incorrect strategy. Most will never even consider that playing with the right betting strategy can turn the disadvantage they can’t overcome into an advantage the book can not overcome. And do it without ever looking at a stat.
The stat based sports betting systems you see around the internet really don’t work, and if they ever do it is not for long. They can’t because they are stat based and the books can and do easily compensate. And yes, they get the systems and scour the forums to find out what people claim is working.
That also explains why the true experts, the very few who have created winning stat based systems, keep them a secret. Many of those bettors make their living at it. Their systems are their trade secret. Putting it out on the internet will close the loophole and crash their business.
I don’t blame them one little bit. If the books could adjust and make my strategy obsolete, I would have kept it to myself as well. But the only way the books can close the “loophole” is to close the shop. If they try to take the profit out of my strategy, it results in more losses to the book by paying the other side of the bet even more than if they did nothing.
So don’t hold it against the “experts” that keep their systems secret. They have every right to do that, and a responsibility to themselves to protect the source of their income.
Besides, would it even work for you if you knew their secret?
I am reminded of a story I read from Ted Nugent. He said he always wanted to play Eddie Van Halens guitar so he could sound just like him. Finally, one day he got the chance to play it. He was disappointed with the results, and said he sounded just like Ted Nugent playing guitar.
The point is, when playing against the books at it’s own game, doing what winners do will not necessarily make one a winner. But if you can use the right strategy, and make the book play YOUR game, you will gain a monetary advantage over the books. Then winning is really pretty easy. And you will never have to keep any secrets.