From Sam Oconnel
Sports Betting Authority
Have you ever wondered why so many people, even those who are pretty good handicappers like you, still lose money betting on sports?
Well here's why.
The books know the psychology of bettors and use it against them. The fact is, the sports books know just as much about sports bettors as they do the teams. Probably even more.
The books know that most people will take them up on the bad bets they offer seeking a higher winning percentage, forgetting that REAL goal is profits. And they are right becuse the vast majority of bettors do just that.
The books understand that the real competition is between them and you, the average sports bettor. It has nothing to do with the game being played on the field, or what teams are playing. Meanwhile, you are focused on the game and teams playing never realizing that it is the books you are really playing against. After all, they have the money.
The result is that you end up taking BAD lines that only benefit the books, and guarantee you will lose money in the long run because they are able to take it off the top long before the game even starts.
Their only concern is locking in a profit for themselves before the clock starts by predicting what YOU will do with the numbers they put out. And they are better at that than they are at handicapping teams.
They get you to take bad bets in several ways, usually by enticing you to risk more than you can make by winning the bet in the first place while paying them thier profits up front.
For example, they create bets that provide a perceived even matchup between the teams using point spreads (handicaps). In other words, they try to create what the public will perceive as coin flip odds. A 50-50 outcome. Then they get you to pay them 10% if you win, just for the privilege of participating.
On those bets, the book laughs all the way to the bank knowing they will profit BIG on the betting no matter who wins the game, or which side wins the bet.
The end result is that you put your handicapping skills up against those of the books, who are easily the best in the business, trying to determine if they "made a mistake" in the number of points they give or take. That is not the real game being played, but if they can get you to go along with it they will gladly take your money.
An amazingly large number of people willingly go into it hoping they will overcome a monetary disadvantage so HUGE that only 1 out of 100 will be able to do it with any consistency. For the other 99%, the book will slowly but surely churn away at your bankroll until it becomes their bankroll.
Then for those who don't like point spreads, they offer a bet on the total score of a game. Of course, the method of fleecing used by the books is the same. You risk more than you can win on the 50-50 outcome. The books take their 10% profit off the top, and if you win you are the one who pays it.
The list of sucker bets goes on, but I am sure you get the picture.
I would call it a scam, but since they do it right out in the open and people still fall for it, it is not their fault. If you choose to dig yourself that big of a monetary hole before the game even starts, you can't put it off on the books.
Ask yourself this one simple question...
Would you pay someone 10% to flip coins for you in a coin toss game? I think not, but that is exactly what the books do with bets like spreads and totals and you pay it without thinking.
And that's not the only way the books lure you into using a bad betting strategy to your own detriment. They also know that even the few who win will have to make many bets and risk a lot of money in order to show a little bit of profit. The monetary disadvantage they put you under (or you put yourself under) is so extreme that even if you overcome it you will only be able to profit a percent or two for each dollar you bet.
Even the best professionals brag about getting a 5% return on investment. Most get nowhere close to that. So as you can see, even the best handicappers in the world will profit only half of what the books are GUARANTEED to make off of the same bets. And that is if LUCK is on their side.
The truth is the books set up a bunch of sucker bets to guarantee their profit, and your loss. They don't handicap the game, they handicap the bettors in a way that allows them to take your money without you even noticing the scam they perpetrate right out in the open under your nose.
I know a lot of people will not believe me. But all the proof you need is right out in the open.
Ask yourself how many times the opening line is the same as the closing line, with no movement in between.
The answer is almost never. So what is the reason for the adjustments in lines and spreads?
Have the books decided they were wrong about the probable outcome of the game? Of course not. The probabilities of the outcome remain the same as they were when the book first ran the numbers through their computers.
So what changed? They were slightly off on their estimate of the bettor behavior. To rectify the situation, they offer or take away an extra point to get more people to bet on the team with less support at the original number.
In other words, they MANIPULATE THE BETTORS to secure their profits and lock in a monetary advantage for themselves.
It's like I said. The books are playing against YOU, while you are betting for or against a team. They make adjustments to win the game with you, not caring one little bit what happens on the field.
I learned a long time ago that the only way to win money betting on sports is to do exactly what the books do. Gain a monetary advantage on every bet.
While you can never get the books to give you money off the top like they take, you can stop them from taking it off the top and give yourself a monetary advantage on the bets you do place.
The reason you actually can make money betting on sports is that you get to make the rules you play by. If the rules you play by favor you, you will win. If you let the books force their bad bets on you, you will lose. It's that simple.
The books know that most people would rather win more bets than more money. In fact, most people measure their success by winning percentage, not the bottom line. So the books offer a way for people to sell their profits for a winning percentage in spread bets and totals. And most do.
Selling your profits for a winning percentage is bad strategy for the bettor, and the books count on you playing that way.
To illustrate, the books "keep" almost 9% of the total bet on the NFL which offers point spreads, yet they only "keep" less than 3% of the total bet on baseball which does not offer them. In baseball there is a Run Line bet available, but it pays the bettor a big premium for taking it so it is really nothing like a point spread.
The books prosper because they abuse the psychology and bad betting strategy on the part of the bettors, not because they are great at handicapping games. They are, but that skill is NOT what makes them money.
When you strip it down to the nuts and bolts, all it takes to win money betting on sports is to be selective enough to place bets only when there is a monetary advantage in your favor for doing so.
They are harder to find, but there are plenty of them available for those who know how to look for them.
If you take the time to look, you will make money off of sports betting as easily as the books do.
I know, that sounds ridiculous, but hear me out.
Winning percentage is based on one thing. The lines you bet on will always correlate to your winning percentage.
For example, if you made every bet on a line of -150, you will win between 57 and 62 percent of your bets without handicapping a single game. Your break even point is 60%.
If you made every bet at +150, you will win between 37 and 42 percent of your bets without handicapping. Your break even point is 40%.
If you played nothing but spreads or totals, you will probably win about 50 percent of the time just by flipping a coin.
So which of those options offers the most potential for profit?
We have already talked about spreads and totals. The book takes their profits rights off the top on those so the potential for profit is very little if any.
Now, if you look at the -150 and +150 lines, you might think the odds of a profit are the same. You would be wrong, and here is why...
Look at the average line sheet and you will see a discrepency between the favorite line and the dog. You will NEVER see a favorite at -150 (60% break even win rate) and a dog at +150 (a 40% break even win rate) for a game.
A favorite that pays -150 will pay the dog about +130. If you add the lines together, the probabilities accounted for add up to about 103% on average. The books have created an "overcharge" to the bettors of about 3%, and that is where their profits come from if they achieve equal betting (their ultimate goal) on a money line bet.
The reason for that is that the favorite is more likely to win, so more people will bet on them in search of a higher winning percentage. The discrepency is a premium you pay, over and above the actual probabilities of the outcome of the game, for the privilege of betting on the favorite.
What does all that mean? Simply put, if you want to totally avoid giving the books a monetary advantage, the only safe bet is on the dog. Betting on dogs will give you a level playing field with the books. But it will NOT give you an advantage.
But if you bet on the right dogs, in the right situations, you can gain an advantage so big the books can not overcome it and you will make some decent profits.
So now you see how losing more bets can make you more money. It eliminates the "vig" and helps ensure that the books don't sneak a monetary advantage to use against you.
But you still have to pick your spots, and the right dogs.
For about a year and a half I posted all of my bets at Best Sports Picks Today. During my time posting, I was the top "handicapper" for both 2011 and 2012. Below is a screenshot of my final record there.
Over the period of 18 months, I won 39.9% of my bets while getting over 15% return on investment for each dollar I bet.
I only posted my picks there to see how my systems stacked up in the real world against the professional handicappers who posted there. As it turns out, there is absolutely no comparison. My methods blew them out of the water. I made more net profit, and three times the return on investment with a third of the risk.
The difference between the results using my strategies and the way everyone else plays is astronomical, and proven.
What sounded ridiculous a minute ago should seem to be miraculous now that you have seen the proof.
So I have made those tools available for everyone.
If everybody used these strategies and systems, the books would be hard pressed to stay in business. There would be nobody left to take them up on their sucker bets. They would run with their tails between their legs back into their casinos with slot machines and table games where they can control the rules.
So let me introduce to you...
How to set up a sports betting "business"
Managing your bankroll and betting unit.
The Golden Rule of sports betting profits.
How to make rules that lock in a profit.
The Basic Strategy of Sports Betting
What information to look at (and where to find it) for EVERY bet.
When to bet a long shot.
When to sit out and NOT bet.
How to use progressive betting the smart way.
Understanding Money Lines and Winning Percentage
The fact is, winning money is not about handicapping skill. It requires the skill of removing the monetary advantage from the books, and giving it to yourself. This strategy guide does that in a way that makes it easy for anybody to accomplish.
The books make money by controlling the advantage, so why shouldn't you? They do it by putting out a lot of sucker bets that require you to risk more than you can win on a bet with coin flip odds. You will do it by avoiding those bets in the first place and taking only bets where you win more than you risk on games that are close to the same coin flip odds.
You can do that because the books can't possibly control everything like they do with other "gambling" games casinos offer.
If you know everything in this book, you will never again bust a bankroll. But that is only the beginning.
When you change your betting strategy, you will also need to change the way you analyze games. To make that easy I include handicapping systems for all 4 major pro sports. They will also work with the NCAA with a few adaptations to account for the wide variety of skill levels you find in college ball.
I'll tell you where to go, and what to look for.
By applying the systems, you will be able to find games most every day in about 15 minutes. Even if you know absolutely NOTHING about the sport. And in no time at all, you will be able to find profitable situations with just a glance at the line sheet.
It's not rocket science and in depth statistical analysis that wins. It takes good lines on good teams when they have a good chance to win.
You look for equality rather than advantage, which is much easier to find and profit from.
When you combine a winning strategy and a handicapping system to take advantage of it, success (and profit) is easy to come by.
There is no reason for you to continue playing a game where the odds are stacked against you before the clock even starts ticking.
The strategy and systems are so easy to master anybody can do it in a day.
And they always work because the books never change. The DIY Sports Betting Systems are built around taking advantage of the books requirements for making their own profits.
And as a BONUS just for you...
I will show you the BEST way to build a small bankroll into a big one in the fastest way possible with the least amount of risk. There is a little more to it than just placing bets. If you don't have a plan to grow your bankroll, you will never be able to build a thriving business with HUGE profits.
If you have any questions, I am always available to answer them. I know the systems work if you understand them and use them correctly, so I want to make sure you have every opportunity to do that.
Any question, any time. I offer and provide the best support in the business. You will NEVER have to go it alone.
And you get everything for a ONE TIME charge of just $77. There is nothing else to buy, EVER, and you even get free updates for life.
I don't like risk, and I don't want to put any on you for trying out my Strategies and Systems so I give you a 100% Money Back Guarantee.
Here is how it works. Get the systems and try them out. If after 30 days you are not making more money than ever before I will refund your purchase price, not questions asked.I have been helping people just like you for almost 10 years now, and I know I can help you too.
If I can't help you win, I don't deserve your money and don't want it.
What's hard is going against everything you think you know and everything you have ever been told about sports betting.
What's hard is admitting you need help, and then taking it.
Most people just don't have what it takes to do that. They will just click away from this page and continue giving their money to the books. There is nothing I can do about that. There is a reason the books will tell you that 99% of all bettors lose in the long term.
It's no coincidence that 99% of the people that see this page will leave it no better off than when they got here. It's a sad fact, but true. People resist change and help, even when it benefits them.
But I also know that for every 100 people that visit this page, one will allow me to help them.
That let's me focus my attention on those who are willing to learn. That's why of the 1% who do take my help, 99% of them succeed.
If you are one of the 1% that is ready for something better, I look forward to working with you and turning you into the winner you are destined to be.
If not, bookmark this page and come back when you are ready. Until then, there is not a lot I can do for you other than wish you good luck and thank you for your time today.
I can't decide your future for you, but I can make it better if you let me.
With INSTANT DOWNLOAD, you can start right now.